You can't become a true A-player at work if your judgment isn't significantly sharper than that of your peers.
And do you know what fucks up people’s judgment more than anything?
Plausibility. Coherent stories and precise data.
Narratives that “just make sense” and reports loaded with specifics.
But coherence isn’t truth. And precision isn’t accuracy.
Most importantly: plausibility isn’t probability. (Write this down now.)
Most people you’ll encounter, both in business and in life, struggle with analyzing what I call the 3Ps of Critical Thinking:
- Possibility
- Plausibility
- Probability
Possibility
The bare minimum. Is the story or hypothesis you’re considering theoretically possible? Ninety-nine times out of a hundred, it’s a “sure, why not.”
Plausibility
This is where our “does this make sense?” radar kicks in. It's often influenced by factors like:
- Does the story logically cohere?
- Is the source of the information reliable?
- Is the narrative simple enough to understand?
- Does the story have enough details to help us imagine it?
A story can be anything from a rumor shared at a bar, to a market analysis for a product launch, or even a criminal case.
And this is where most people stop. If it’s plausible, it’s likely true.
But it’s not.
Probability
This is what separates the thinkers from the guessers.
Probability doesn’t care if something makes sense theoretically (that’s plausibility); it’s concerned with how likely something is to be true in reality.
Consider:
- The detailed, assumption-based sales forecast: what are the uncertainties surrounding these assumptions?
- The narrative about an employee’s sudden performance dip: what don’t you know about their personal circumstances?
- A product concept that looks perfect on paper: what is the likelihood that every critical component will work flawlessly?
- A plausible explanation for a mishap: how probable is it that events unfolded exactly as suggested?
Many scenarios that "make sense" under the plausibility lens fall apart when viewed through the lens of probability.
To cut through plausibility and leverage probability, consistently ask yourself these three questions:
- What are all the assumptions in the story?
- How likely is each of them to be true?
- What if one of them is wrong?
Remember, as an A-player, your goal is to not just accept stories that are plausible like everyone else does.
It’s to separate what’s true from what sounds good.
